Looking out from Hell Town tonight...
  Woodstock, IL is a modest hamlet of 25,630 souls situated 37 miles northwest of Chicago. It’s been around since 1844, and while it’s not achieved anything approaching real fame, it has stored up a respectable share of pleasant life-affirming memories. (Which is actually funnier than it sounds.) It grew up as a farming community, producing cattle, grain and pickles. Its downtown area features charming late 19th century architecture, with several buildings listed in the National Register of Historic Places. It has quaint cobblestone streets and period lighting, and in the middle of everything an attractively landscaped Park on a gentle slope in the town square. Where summer band concerts have entertained generations of townsfolk going back 130 years. Orson Wells called Woodstock his boyhood home even though he was never actually a resident. Johnny Stompanato, bodyguard and enforcer for L.A. crime boss Mickey Cohen, grew up here too. Stompanato became famous in the mid-1950s, when he began an abusive relationship with actress Lana Turner, which ended when he was stabbed to death by Turner's daughter, who beat the wrap because his death was ruled justifiable homicide. On the other side of the law, Chester Gould, creator of the Dick Tracey comic character, lived in Woodstock for 50 years, commuting daily to the Chicago where de drew his strip. Each year Woodstock holds one of the nation's most famous Groundhog Day festivals, established following the success of the eponymously named movie, which two Chicagoans, Bill Murray and Harrold Ramos, chose to shoot there.
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VITAL SIGNS

2023 GDP annual growth: +2.5%.
3rd Qtr. GDPNow est. Sept. 9: 2.5% (Atlanta Fed. Rsv.)
FY '23 Fed Rev/Spnd: 4,439/6,134 (bil)
Wkly Jobless Claims (Sept. 26): 218,000, -4,000)
Sept. Consumer Confidence Index:(-6.9%)
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 9/27/24 -- Opinions Vary

Donald Trump Campaign ad, “Clueless,” released Sept. 23 ...
Their Bidenomics led to the highest inflation in 40 years. Highest gas prices ever, skyrocketing interest rates, unaffordable housing, incomes down, unemployment rising and a recession now headed our way.
I'm Donald J. Trump and I approve this message
News Report, Yahoo Finance, Sept. 26 ...
The third update from the US on second quarter GDP growth beat Wall Street expectations, while weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to the lowest levels in four months.

US stocks jumped, as investors welcomed a slew of updates, including solid US economic data and upbeat earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.62%, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% to close at another record high.

[On Sept. 18, the Federal Reserve Bank reduced interest rates by a half-percentage point, signaling confidence that strength in the labor market would be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. Asked whether the U.S. economy faced the prospect of a recession, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell told reporters, “I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests the likelihood of a recession. You see growth at a solid rate, you see inflation coming down, and you see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels.”]

Total Non-farm Employment
St. Louis Federal Reserve




 7/31/24 -- Donald Trump's Fabulous Tales of Presidency

Myth #1: “The greatest economy in the history of the world”

What on earth could he be thinking? Former President Donald Trump regularly claims he presided over, in turn, the greatest economy in U.S. history and the greatest economy in the world. People who follow these things for a living not only dismiss such claims as sheer fantasy, they have a hard time imagining what he could be basing, even erroneously, such preposterous assertions on.

The "best economy" claim was one of a litany of spurious brags Trump made in his debate with President Biden, and is one which he made as well in his first (2020) presidential debate with then-candidate Biden in Cleveland. He flaunted the same claim in a Facebook post October 5, 2021. And has flogged it at his rallies dozens of time since.

The way economists generally evaluate the size and strength of an economy is by charting its rate of growth. And the way they generally do that is with something called Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency of the Department of Commerce, produces official macroeconomic and industry statistics including reports about the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States and its various units—states, cities, towns, counties, and metropolitan areas. BEA has about 500 employees and an annual budget of approximately $101 million.

Quarterly and annual GDP readings are the most popular way to measure how a president is managing the economy during his term of office. And economic policies are one of the main issues that presidential candidates harp on when running for office. But it should be noted that while the president plays an important role in guiding the economy, external factors such as wars, recessions or, say, public health crises significantly impact economic progress and can be out of a president’s control. Moreover, the Federal Reserve—an independent arm of the federal government—sets monetary policy, which also greatly influences GDP performance. (Ask Trump about COVID, ask Biden about interest rates.)

Even before COVID, not just GDP but other metrics such as wages and business investment under Trump were at best on par with what previous presidents turned in, or even below. In point of fact, annual increases in GDP under Trump were broadly similar to what they were during the final six years under his predecessor, Barack Obama. And all this is a part of the public record. So whence the "greatest economy" boast?

Trump did score, so to speak, two economic milestones during his four years in the White House. In the third quarter of 2020, GDP surged at what would ordinarily be a stunning 33.1% annualized rate. The President, predictably, was quick to celebrate: “Biggest and Best in the History of our Country, and not even close. Next year will be FANTASTIC!!!” he wrote on Twitter.

First of all, it's well to bear in mind that quarterly GDP growth is an artificial construct. It multiplies quarterly gain or loss by four in order to produce a picture of what a whole year at that rate would like.

Second, celebrating this particular moment was akin to telling half a story. Immediately leading up to that “milestone” measure, the second quarter had declined at a 31.4% annualized rate — the deepest downturn on record.

In other words, the US posted record growth in one period because it posted a record decline in the period prior. In fact, the US economy was still operating well below its pre-pandemic peak and GDP was still $670 billion lower than where it was at the end of 2019.

But a timing reference in the Trump Facebook post dated October 5, 2021, suggests he could be thinking of the other "record" achievement of his term of office. Unemployment in September 2019 plunged to 3.5%, a level it hadn’t touched since the early 1950s. It was essentially the lowest peacetime unemployment rate over a three-year period, going back to the Great Depression, according to Gary Burtless, an economist with the Brookings Institution.

Trump's Facebook post read “In case you forgot. Two years ago today (emphasis added), we were experiencing the greatest economy in the history of the world.”

That "two years ago" time reference fits pretty well with the September 2019 report date. Could Trump be confusing unemployment with GDP, or simply deciding on his own that the former was a more flattering indicator of his economic achievement than the latter? Why not, if it suits his purposes? He’s told bigger lies than that.

But in all honesty, this was an accomplishment that would need to be shared anyway. Trump benefited greatly from the continuation of trends already well in place from the Obama “Great Recession” recovery. (Nor would Trump sustain it for long. By the following April, with COVID, it had mushroomed to 14.8%)

"While Trump can take some credit, I see it like the relief pitcher who comes in during the 9th inning with a seven-run lead, then boasts about winning the game," Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research, told PolitiFact. "It’s fine to get some credit for holding the lead, but this is much more an Obama story than a Trump story."

(The rate dropped later to 3.4% under Biden in January 2023. Currently it sits at 4.1%) No, Donald Trump didn’t lead ‘greatest economy in the history of the world’

But the fact remains that growth in the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) is the key tool to gauge an economy's performance, and that was just so-so on Trump’s watch. And all the former President can really claim with respect to GDP is that he achieved the second strongest growth record of all presidents in the second decade of the twenty-first century (2011-2020).

PolitiFact has twice dismissed The Donald’s “greatest economy,” claim in a one-word judgement, as “False.”

On Deck: "We had the strongest border ever."




 6/20/24 --"Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them"*

Kansas Sen. Bob Kerry, in assessing the political virtues of then-President Bill Clinton back in 1995, characterized him as "an unusually good liar." Sen. Kerry, meet ex-President Donald J. Trump, regarded by his critics as the most prodigious prevaricator to occupy the White House in the modern era, if not ever.

Washington Post fact-checkers, who were keeping track from the beginning, documented 30,573 false or misleading claims during Trump's presidential term, an average of about 21 per day.

"All Presidents lie. It’s a basic fact of American government," author Bill Lueders began a book review he wrote for The Progressive Magazine. some years back. The book in question was Eric Alterman's Lying in State: Why Presidents Lie, and Why Trump Is Worse. According to Alterman the tradition dates back to Thomas Jefferson who lied publicly about the true purpose of the Lewis and Clark expedition, which was not primarily scientific as claimed but meant to scope out the West for acquisition.

Alterman recounts how FDR feigned reticence about entering World War II. And how Truman falsely described Hiroshima, a civilian center targeted for atomic devastation, as a “military base.” Dwight Eisenhower lied about U.S. spy flights over Russia and got caught when Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev produced a downed pilot. John F. Kennedy lied about the Cuban missile crisis. Lyndon Johnson lied about Vietnam, in particular the imaginary Gulf of Tonkin attack that gave license to the war.

And evidently about whatever else came into his mind as well. Of Lyndon B. Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Sr., (no fan of his brother's successor) once said: "He just lies continually about everything. He lies even when he doesn't have to lie." Johnson's persistent dissembling about the Vietnam War envenomed American political life to the point that journalists coined a euphemistic term for the disconnect: the credibility gap. Which in time was what brought his administration's tenure to an early and disreputable end.

Johnson's successor, Richard Nixon, ran for office pledging to bring an "honorable" end to the carnage in Vietnam, before expanding the conflict by secretly carpet-bombing neutral Cambodia. Then for Nixon, of course, there was Watergate.

When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and US troops were rapidly scrambling to the Gulf, some segments of the American public appeared to be less than completely sold on the justification for military action. Jude Sheerin writing on the Broadcasting Corp.'s website recounts the following tale.

The Kuwaiti government-in-exile hired a US public relations firm, Hill & Knowlton, whose Washington DC office was run by (President George H.W.) Bush's former chief of staff.

The PR firm coached a purported witness, introduced as a 15-year-old girl called "Nayirah," to tearfully testify to US Congressmen, in October 1990, that Iraqi soldiers had entered a hospital in Kuwait, removed babies from incubators and left them to die on the cold floor. Nayirah, reporters were assured, was using an assumed name for fear of reprisals against her family back home. Only after the war would it emerge she was the daughter of Kuwait's ambassador to the US and her story was completely baseless. Remember the movie "Wag the Dog" with Dustin Hoffman and Robert DeNiro (also Anne Heche and a hilarious cameo by Woody Harrelson)? President Bush is recorded as having publicly touted this tall tale at least six times as he blew the bugle of war.

Leuders's book review observes that presidential lies are generally propagated to serve one of a small number of ends. Some are deemed necessary or at least justified to advance specific strategic or tactical goals, others are aimed, regrettably, at self-serving or opportunistic purposes, or worse, intended to conceal corruption. And then some were just downright pathological, as the title of Alderman's book suggests.

The German philosopher Immanuel Kant regarded any lie as immoral—even one told to a murderer at the door. Kant saw lying as overriding the autonomous will of another person, unacceptably reducing that person to a mere tool. Modern-day philosophers are a little more inclined to allow exceptions to such rigidity, citing, for example, when using deception for achieving a critical political goal.

An article in the website The Conversation (an online "Ezine" posted by an independent news organization) recounts the story of how Abraham Lincoln, while himself open to the idea of pursuing peace negotiations with the Confederacy, knew that much of his own party believed unconditional surrender by the South was the only acceptable path to settling the slavery issue. Lincoln wrote a note to his own party asserting—falsely—that there were “no peace commissioners” being sent to conference with the Confederacy. A member of Congress later allowed that, in the absence of that note, the 13th Amendment—which ended the practice of chattel slavery—would never have been passed.

In that same article The Conversation suggests that Trump tends to lie in a slightly different way, the pathological one. "What is striking about his lies ... is that they have tended to be told to defend his own self-image or political viability rather than in service of some central political good." And one might add, they are never-ending.

The article further opines that some of President Trump’s more implausible lies can be best understood as tests of loyalty; those in his circle who repeat his most obvious lies demonstrate their loyalty in doing so. Most recently, he has attacked as disloyal members of the Republican Party who have not repeated his ,um, trumped up claims about electoral fraud.

But pathology aside, self-serving tactics have occasionally been employed by presidents credited with far more probity than Trump (or Clinton). In 1983, President Ronald Reagan claimed he had filmed atrocities of the Nazi death camps while serving as a US Army Signal Corps photographer in Europe. Supposedly he told this story to Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir at the White House. But in fact, Reagan never left America during World War Two.

Even the Father of our Country was not above self-justifying mendacity in weaker moments. In 1788, Washington attempted to rewrite history by claiming he had been the strategic visionary behind the victory over the British at Yorktown seven years earlier, which effectively ended the Revolutionary War. But it was actually his French allies, specifically Rochambeau and Lafayette, who masterminded the decisive battle in Virginia. Washington had been stubbornly arguing instead for an attack on New York City.

The original sin, if you will, of presidential duplicity.

* Title stolen from Al Franken
Debate Notes

The CNN news clip that introduces this post is a fact-checking analysis of a Trump rally in Wisconsin. It was held the weekend before the first (and maybe last) Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It counted thirty fabrications, misrepresentations and distortions made in a soaring Trumpian flight into a make-believe where one need only need wish to make it so. Do people really believe him when he does these things? Does he even care? Are parallel universes just part of the show?

The fact-checking was the work of Daniel Dale, a reporter in CNN's Washington Bureau who specializes in assessing politicians' claims. He has since produced a similar report on the Presidential debate as well. (It can be viewed at CNN's website if the reader is hungry for more.)

The litany of claims, criticisms and assorted fantasies Trump delivered at the Presidential debate was quite similar to what he offered in Milwaukee, only a little longer and with the stunned countenance of the current President for added visual effect. It was an affair where Biden seemed surprisingly weighted down by old age and creeping perplexity and Trump seemed unusually untethered from reality.

The Biden people could hardly claim they couldn't foresee what their man would be up against. They'd have done better to just skip any effort to give voice to Biden's own future vision or recent accomplishments. And steer his entire narration toward taking the hot out of the hot air in Trump's more mind-exploding pretensions.

They could have made it simple by just schooling the President in five or six key contradictory rebuttals, and doing it over and over, to the point where he'd be able to deliver them in his sleep. Which judging from his level of alertness at the Atlanta disaster, might just be what he'd have to be able to do.

Coming up next here: a series of future posts, with small words, each addressing one specific instance of the former President's litany of louche claims and improbable reveries. Relatively short: to the point, briefly documented, simply illustrated. Watch your in-box. Copies will go to Camp David too. Even if it turns out someone else gets to take Joe's place, being Democrats it's likely they'd be able to use them too.

This shouldn't be that hard. All you have to do is convince people you're not Donald Trump. Or someone worse.

On Deck: "The greatest economy in the history of the world."



 2/24/24 -- "I faced it all, and I stood tall and did it my way."

Annual CPAC Conference Vice Presidential Straw Poll
Gaylord Nat'l Resort & Convention Center, Fort Washington, MD
Feb. 24
candidate vote
News Commentator Tucker Carlson
Frm House./Urban Devel. Sec. Dr. Ben Carson
Gov. (FL) Ron DeSantis
Rep. (FL) Byron Donalds
Fmr. Rep. (HI) Tulsi Gabbard
Frm. Gov. (SC) Nikki Haley
Lawyer, Activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Frm. TV journalist Kari Lake
Gov. (SD) Kristi Noem
entrepreneur, Vivek Ramaswamy
Gov. (AR) Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Sen. (SC) Tim Scott
Rep. (NY) Elise Stefanic
Sen. (OH)J.D. Vance

Polling was conducted by McLaughlin & Assoc. Ballots were submitted by 1,478 conference participants. A separate presidential poll was won by Donald Trump with 94% of the vote with Nikki Haley receiving 5%.


 2/21/24 -- Historians' Presidents Day Survey

The 2024 edition of the "Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey" got released, in a nod to tradition, on Presidents Day, which this year, in case you forgot already, was observed February 19. This is a project of the American Political Science Association. Founded in 1903, the APSA is regarded as the leading professional organization for the study of political science and serves more than 11,000 members in more than 100 countries.

Recent professional interest in rating U.S. presidents dates from the Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr., poll of 1948. Schlesinger solicited the opinions of fifty-five "experts," the majority of whom were professional historians. The findings were subsequently published in Life magazine and were quickly embraced by the press as representing the collective judgment of historians everywhere. Schlesinger repeated the exercise fourteen years later, this time surveying seventy-five experts.

In both those polls the top five ranking presidents were Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Thomas Jefferson. The bottom two were Ulysses S. Grant and Warren G. Harding.

Respondents to this year’s survey included current and recent members of the Presidents & Executive Politics Section of the American Political Science Association as well as scholars who had recently published peer-reviewed academic research in key related scholarly journals or academic presses. 525 respondents were invited to participate, and 154 usable responses were received, yielding a 29.3% response rate.

On the survey's 0-100 scale of "overall greatness," a rating of 50 means a president was average, while zero means a president is considered a failure. Only the top three presidents — Abraham Lincoln at No. 1, followed by Franklin D. Roosevelt and then George Washington — scored above 90. The drop-off was sharp from there, with no one else above an 80 rating. Roughly half the presidents were rated below 50.

The results of this year’s ranking are similar to the results from previous surveys. Abraham Lincoln again tops the list (95.03 average), followed by Franklin Delano Roosevelt (90.83), George Washington (90.32), Teddy Roosevelt (78.58), Thomas Jefferson (77.53), Harry Truman (75.34), Barack Obama (73.8), and Dwight Eisenhower (73.73).

The most notable changes in this ordering are Franklin Delano Roosevelt moving up to #2 from the third spot last year, and Dwight Eisenhower falling back to #8 from #6 last year. The bottom of the rankings is also relatively stable. Donald Trump rates lowest (10.92), behind James Buchanan (16.71), Andrew Johnson (21.56), Franklin Pierce (24.6), William Henry Harrison (26.01), and Warren Harding (27.76).

"While partisanship and ideology don't tend to make a major difference overall, there are a few distinctions worth noting," said political scientists Brandon Rottinghaus of the University of Houston and Justin S. Vaughn of Coastal Carolina University, who managed this year's survey as those in 2015 and 2018. “Experts who self-identified as conservatives rated President Joe Biden No. 30, while liberals put him 13th and moderates ranked him 20th. All three of those same groups ranked Donald Trump, whose presidency was marked by his flouting of historical norms, in the bottom five.”

"There are also other president assessments where partisan polarization is evident — Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Obama, and Biden — but interestingly not for Bill Clinton," the survey's authors said. Thirsty for more? The following two links are for, respectively, the NPR news posting describing the survey ("In historians' Presidents Day survey, Biden vs. Trump is not a close call") and a white paper by the survey directors ("Official Results of the 2024 Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey") which includes the ratings and rankings for all 45 presidents.